In der Zeitschrift für Politik ist ein Sonderband erschienen zum Thema “Integrierte Sicherheit für Deutschland? Die Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie der Bundesrepublik Deutschland”, herausgegeben von Holger Janusch und Thomas Dörfler (Hochschule des Bundes für öffentliche Verwaltung). In 16 Beiträgen werden die Entstehung, Bedeutung, Politikfelder und rechtliche Einordnung der 2023 veröffentlichten Sicherheitsstrategie erörtert. Mein Beitrag “Strategische Zeitenwende? Die Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie als Wendepunkt deutscher Außenpolitik” widmet sich der Frage, inwiefern die Strategie einen Wandel in den Grundorientierungen deutscher Außenpolitik markiert. Alle Beiträge des Sonderbandes sind dank Open Access frei zugänglich.

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Zusammenfassung: Russlands Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine bedeutet eine sicherheitspolitische Zeitenwende für Deutschland und Europa. Neben der Zeitenwende-Rede von Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz hat sich die Neubewertung des sicherheitspolitischen Umfelds nicht zuletzt in der von der Bundesregierung im Juni 2023 vorgestellten Nationalen Sicherheitsstrategie manifestiert. Vor diesem Hintergrund geht der vorliegende Beitrag der übergeordneten Frage nach, inwiefern die Strategie einen Wandel in den Grundorientierungen deutscher Außenpolitik markiert. Im ersten Teil des Beitrags werden Kontinuitätslinien deutscher Außenpolitik, wie Multilateralismus, Westbindung und Zivilmacht nachgezeichnet. Der zweite Teil widmet sich der Neuorientierung der deutschen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik im Kontext der Zeitenwende. Im dritten Teil wird die Strategie hinsichtlich ihrer Bezüge auf außenpolitische Grundprinzipien und mögliche Neuerungen untersucht. Abschließend werden die Ergebnisse zusammengeführt, Kritikpunkte herausgestellt und Erklärungsansätze skizziert.

On May 23, I participated in a book workshop organized by Paul van Hooft (RAND Europe) to discuss his ongoing project that addresses the strategic legacies of World War II for the United States and several Western European countries. Other workshop participants included Linde Desmaele (Leiden University), Peter J. Dombrowski (U.S. Naval War College), Annette Freyberg-Inan (University of Amsterdam), William D. James (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore), and Brian Rathbun (Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, University of Toronto). Thanks to Paul van Hooft for setting this up and to all participants for the engaged discussions!

On May 21, I took part in the 9th European Union in International Affairs (EUIA) Conference in Brussels. Wolfgang Wagner and I presented our paper “Pacifism, Isolationism or Anti-Americanism? Explaining Public Opposition to Supporting Ukraine against Russia’s War of Aggression” as part of the panel “The Ukraine effect in European security and defence: lessons after three years of war”, organized and chaired by Yf Reykers (Maastricht University), who also served as our discussant. The panel further included contributions from Michelle Haas (Ghent University), Jocelyn Mawdsley (Newcastle University), and Elie Perot (Brussels School of Governance). Thanks to Yf Reykers for the constructive discussant points and to the audience for the superbly well-attended panel.

The program for the 29th Summer School in Social Science Methods at the Università della Svizzera italiana in Lugano, Switzerland has been announced: I’m offering Exploring Causal Complexity with Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) during the week of August 11-15, 2025. For impressions from previous years, see here. For more information, also on registration, please see the USI Summer School Website. If you have any questions about the course, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

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From the course description: Social phenomena rarely have straightforward, single-cause explanations. Instead, outcomes often emerge through intricate combinations of factors, where multiple pathways lead to similar results, and different explanations may be required for success and failure. This interplay of conjunctural causation, equifinality, and causal asymmetry represents the essence of causal complexity – a concept at the heart of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). Rooted in set theory and the logic of necessary and sufficient conditions, QCA offers a structured approach to understanding these complexities.

This workshop provides participants with a comprehensive introduction to QCA, emphasizing research design and empirical application. Participants will follow an ideal-typical research process, starting with empirical illustrations of how and why QCA is used in the social sciences. These foundational sessions explore key principles, such as set theory, Boolean algebra, and the calibration of crisp and fuzzy sets, while guiding participants through the protocol for identifying patterns of causal complexity using truth tables and Boolean minimization.

The course progresses step by step, from study design to the interpretation of results, incorporating hands-on exercises with real-world examples. Advanced topics – including multi-method research, robustness tests, and recent developments in QCA – are tailored to participants’ needs and research interests. Opportunities to present individual projects and explore potential applications further enhance the workshop.

Designed to be inclusive, the workshop welcomes participants at all levels – from PhD students to senior researchers – and strikes a balance between theory, practical exercises, and individualized support. A strong emphasis on collaboration and dialogue ensures ample time for consultation, group discussions, and networking. By the end of the workshop, participants will be equipped with the theoretical knowledge and practical skills needed to apply QCA effectively, providing a robust framework for addressing causal complexity in comparative social science research.

The President of the International Studies Assocation (ISA), Siba Grovogui, has appointed me to serve as Chair of the ISA Committee on Dissertation Completion Fellowships for a one-year term, until March 2026. I originally joined the committee in 2024, following my appointment by then-ISA President Marijke Breuning. In this role, I am fortunate to work alongside a group of esteemed colleagues: Holley E. Hansen (Oklahoma State University), Sam O. Opondo (Vassar College), Olivia Umurerwa Rutazibwa (London School of Economics and Political Science), and Alexander D. Barder (Florida International University). Together, we aim to do our best to support graduate students through the work of this committee.

Dissertation Completion Fellowships are open to applicants from across the social sciences and humanities working in the field of international studies, broadly conceived. The Committee is a permanent standing committee of the ISA. Its members are appointed by the ISA President and confirmed by the ISA Governing Council. The fellowship program aims to support graduate students in the final stages of writing their dissertation, typically in the last year of their PhD program. While the fellowship is open to all eligible graduate student members of ISA, the committee particularly encourages applications from groups, genders, and nationalities that have been historically under-represented in the field of international studies. Preference will also be given to students without access to other sources of funding to assist with dissertation completion.

The Call for Applications will open on July 1, 2025. On the ISA website you can see last year’s criteria, which will be updated (with minor changes) before the new call is published.

The Cambridge Review of International Affairs published my open access article “The party politics of national role contestation: Germany’s ‘traffic light’ coalition and the Russian war against Ukraine“. Building on my recent work on German foreign policy change, this article examines national role contestation within the traffic-light coalition under Chancellor Scholz (2021-2024). Hence, emphasis is placed on policy differences between the coalition partners but also between the governing parties and the opposition. The article originated in the 10th European Workshops in International Studies (EWIS) in Amsterdam in 2023, and it is part of a forthcoming special issue edited by Angelos Chryssogelos and Toby Greene. Many thanks to all participants, the editors, and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

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Abstract: Addressing the German Bundestag in February 2022, Chancellor Scholz described the implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine as a Zeitenwende (‘watershed’) in international politics. Since then, Germany saw unprecedented changes in its foreign and security policy, overturning established policies and long-held beliefs. While these have been the subject of academic studies and political commentary, less attention has been paid to the domestic contestation of Germany’s national role in the wake of the Zeitenwende. Building on work in role theory and party politics, this article analyses the partisan contestation of German foreign policy role conceptions during the traffic light coalition of SPD, Greens, and Liberals (2021–2024). The article provides evidence of both horizontal and vertical role contestation. The former takes place between government and opposition but also among the governing parties. The latter relates to contestation within political parties, from the public, but also—as a novel form of vertical role contestation—between the regional and federal level. Taken together, the article identifies considerable national role contestation below the surface of an apparent cross-party foreign policy consensus.

The December issue of Baltic Rim Economies includes a short piece of mine: “Zeitenwende at Twilight: Will Germany’s Shift Last?“. This article is part of a special issue on Germany’s Political, Economic, and Environmental Development. The contribution reflects on the transitional phase that Germany currently finds itself in, after the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition in November 2024, before the early elections in February 2025, and amidst increasing political contestation over Germany’s foreign and security policy, as witnessed in regional elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, among others. Baltic Rim Economies is published by Centrum Balticum, headed by Director Kari Liuhto, Professor at the University of Turku in Finland.

From the article: “As Germany stands at the twilight of its Zeitenwende, the question remains whether this transformative shift in foreign and security policy will endure amid domestic political upheaval and external pressures. The upcoming general elections will play a decisive role in shaping the future of this pivotal moment in German history, determining whether the policy changes that have been initiated since 2022 can be sustained or fade into twilight, overshadowed by competing domestic and international pressures.”

On December 10-12, the European QCA Conference took place at Tilburg University, organized by Roel Rutten, Lien Denoo, Giulia Bazzan, Jiahe Wang, and Steven van den Oord. As in previous years, in Zurich and Antwerp, this entailed a Paper Development Workshop where empirical QCA applications were discussed in small panels with two experts and three to four paper-givers each. I participated as QCA expert in a panel on public governance (broadly conceived), where I discussed four papers together with Giulia Bazzan (Tilburg University). The Paper Development Workshop was followed by an Expert Workshop with three panels of papers on recent developments and methodological advances.

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On October 31 and November 1, I participated in the first MethodsNET Conference at UC Louvain in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Founded in late 2021, MethodsNET is a network and community of methods experts and practitioners that hosts and supports methods training and development, including the Summer School in Social Sciences Methods at the Università della Svizzera italiana, among others. I presented two papers: “Uncovering Causal Symptoms: Combining Process Tracing and Qualitative Comparative Analysis in Case Study Research”, co-authored with Hilde van Meegdenburg (Universiteit Leiden) and “Counterfactuals and Qualitative Comparative Analysis” co-authored with Gizem Kadıoğlu and Michael Gibbert (both Università della Svizzera italiana). Thanks to the organizing team led by Benoît Rihoux (UC Louvain) and to the participants at our panels for the fruitful discussions and constructive feedback.

Am 10./11. Oktober habe ich im Konferenzzentrum des Bundesnachrichtendienstes (BND) an einem Workshop zum Thema “Integrierte Sicherheit für Deutschland? Die Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie der Bundesrepublik Deutschland” teilgenommen. Die Veranstaltung wurde von Holger Janusch und Thomas Dörfler von der Hochschule des Bundes für Öffentliche Verwaltung (HS Bund) organisiert. Die Beiträge des Workshops sollen im kommenden Jahr in einem Sonderheft der Zeitschrift für Politik erscheinen. In meinem Beitrag “Sicherheitspolitik in der Zeitenwende: Die Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie als Ausdruck außenpolitischen Wandels” ordne ich die Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie (NSS) in den Kontext außenpolitischer Kontinuitätslinien ein und gehe der Frage nach, inwiefern die NSS einen grundlegenden außenpolitischen Wandel markiert. Eine Besonderheit des Workshops war die Verbindung von Praxis und Wissenschaft, da zu jedem Beitrag “Impulse aus der Praxis” von Vertreter:innen verschiedener Bundesministerien und Ämter formuliert wurden (AA, BMVg, BMI, BMWK, BND, BPA, GIZ). Im Rahmen des Workshops fand auch eine öffentliche Podiumsdiskussion statt zum Thema “Politische Hochglanzbroschüre oder strategischer Goldstandard? Die Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie der Bundesrepublik Deutschland”, bei der ich die Moderation übernommen habe. Im Panel waren dabei: Sylvia Veit (HSU Hamburg), Pia Fuhrhop (SWP), Holger Janusch (HS Bund) und Jan Eckendorf (Auswärtiges Amt). Herzlichen Dank an die Organisatoren und das lokale Team für die gelungene Veranstaltung!

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